CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-06-17T17:57:00-CME-001)

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# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
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WEEK 1172 from 2023 Jun 12

Solar Active Regions (ARs) and flares
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Solar flaring activity ranged between low and moderate levels. There was a total of 14 active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk over the week. At the start of the week, solar flaring activity was at low levels; NOAA AR 3327, NOAA AR 3333 and NOAA AR 3335 were the sources of the majority of the flaring activity. From June 15, the solar flaring activity increased to moderate levels. The largest flare was an M2.5 flare, peaking at 13:53 UTC June 18. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3336 and also produced a Type II radio burst. This region and others also produced 4 other low level M-class flares between June 15 and June 18.

Coronal mass ejections
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There were multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed over the week, many of which were associated with filament eruptions. One CME was considered to have a possible Earth directed component: A large filament eruption, which stretched from the central meridian to the north-west quadrant observed in SDO/AIA from 17:57 UTC June 17. The bulk of the CME was directed to the northwest and the speed was very slow (350 km/s) but a glancing blow at Earth was predicted possible from June 22.

Coronal Holes
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An equatorial negative polarity coronal hole began to cross the central meridian on June 12. Later in the week, two small coronal holes also crossed the central meridian on June 17, one negative and one positive. Both were at high latitudes, in the southern and northern hemispheres, respectively.

Proton flux levels
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The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels.

Electron fluxes at GEO
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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels for the first half of the week. It began to increase from June 16 and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold from June 17. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels at the start of the week increasing to moderate levels by June 18.

Solar wind
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The solar wind conditions (ACE) at the start of the week, reflected background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 300 and 450 km/s. From around 12:00 UTC on June 15, a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) was observed, with an increase in the interplanetary magnetic field to values around 20 nT. The solar wind speed increased sharply from 21:00 UT on June 15, with the arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS), to values above 700 km/s and remained elevated on June 16 and June 17. By the end of the week, the solar wind speed was slowly decreasing and levelled out around 400km/s.

Geomagnetism
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At the start of the week the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. On June 15 and 16, the level increased to moderate storm conditions globally (NOAA Kp =6) and minor storm conditions locally (K Bel = 5) in response to the CIR and HSS arrivals. Conditions then returned to quiet to unsettled levels from June 17.

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DAILY INDICES
DATE           RC   EISN  10CM   Ak   BKG    M   X
2023 Jun 12   153    117   146   008   C1.1   0   0
2023 Jun 13   082    086   146   009   C1.0   0   0
2023 Jun 14   130    115   144   004   C1.1   0   0
2023 Jun 15   ///    121   153   026   C1.1   0   0
2023 Jun 16   ///    128   157   032   C1.2   3   0
2023 Jun 17   ///    126   158   009   C1.1   0   0
2023 Jun 18   ///    159   164   012   C1.2   2   0
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# RC   : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)
# EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number # 10cm : 10.7 cm  radioflux (DRAO, Canada)
# Ak   : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)
# BKG  : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA) # M,X  : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below (NOAA, USA)
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NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
16  0521  0530 0541 ////// M1.0          ///3337      VI/2

16  1020  1038 1059 ////// M1.0          ///3338      III/1

16  1952  1959 2007 ////// M1.0          25/3331

18  0025  0031 0040 ////// M1.3          ///3336

18  1325  1353 1414 S25E22 M2.5 2N       ///3336      VI/2II/1


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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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